MMA Betting Impact of Dropping Weight

Learn the MMA betting impact of fighter’s dropping weight.

Key Points

– The MMA betting impact of dropping weight can be significant.

– Keeping an eye on weight loss can help an MMA bettor win more bets.

MMA Betting Impact of Dropping Weight

The majority of UFC fighters experience little stress leading up to their weigh-in. Despite the fact that they might need to lose a little weight, they essentially fight in the weight class in which they reside. 

Some fighters, however, face a much greater challenge. They must quickly lose weight to make weight for their fight. They might be dropping to a lower weight class or fighting in a weight class that is aggressively low for them. 

There are no known cases of weight loss of more than 15 pounds. Astute bettors need to pay close attention to the MMA betting impact of these drastic weight losses. Weight loss can have a significant effect on fights. Here are five things to consider when betting the UFC with a fighter who needs to lose a lot of weight. 


History of Losing Weight

If a fighter has dropped a lot of weight before, he may be accustomed to the various side effects. The physical cost of a fighter losing a lot of weight quickly is significant. 

One of the big issues is dehydration. Many fighters will deliberately dehydrate themselves in an effort to lose water weight. Fighters do this at a rapid pace and it has effects on the body. Those that don’t have a lot of experience in dropping weight might not be aware of how to quickly reverse the effects of dehydration after weighing in.

A fighter with more experience in dropping weight will be much more knowledgeable about what to do and how it will affect their performance. Additionally, handicappers will be able to react appropriately to the circumstance. 

When a fighter hasn’t dealt with weight drops before, handicappers are left with no choice but to make an educated guess as to how they’ll react. The MMA betting impact is huge.

MMA Betting Impact of Fighting at Certain Weight

Another thing to consider when assessing the MMA betting impact of dropping weight is if the fighter has ever fought previously in this weight class. When someone enters a weight class for the first time, it’s important to consider both the effects of the weight loss and how the person fits into the class. 

Are they taller than the majority of their potential opponents? What is their fighting style? Do they fight in a faster, less strength-focused style that would be more appropriate for a lighter weight class? 

If a fighter is well-suited to competing at a lower weight class, the benefits of the new weight class may outweigh the drawbacks of losing the weight. 

Fight Day Weight

If you didn’t know, MMA fighters in the UFC, for example, will weigh in the day before their scheduled fight. The weigh in is typically scheduled between 9:00 and 11:00 a.m. local time.

That means a fighter’s weight is going to fluctuate going into the next day and at fight time. For example, a fighter might have dropped 11 pounds to weigh in at 185 and compete for a middleweight title. 

Upon waking up the next day, the fighter eats a number of meals throughout the day and actually weighs closer to his initial 196 by fight time. 

The impact of a fighter’s weight loss will be somewhat lessened if he or she is able to gain back a significant amount of it. Many fighters do gain the weight back before fight time. The fighter will have recovered a large portion of the water weight and the long-term effects of the weight loss are diminished. The MMA betting impact in this case is lessened since bettors know this fighter typically puts the weight back on before the fight. 

A Fighter at His Best

If a fighter has to lose a bunch of weight prior to a weigh in, a good question to ask is if the fighter needs to be at his best. Those that lose weight, especially a lot of it, before a fight are going to underperform. They will not be at their strongest.

Can a fighter get by not being at his strongest and still win? If the dropped weight gives the opponent an advantage, then there is significant MMA betting impact. If the dropped weight does not result in a distinct advantage for the opponent, that is also significant for bettors placing bets. The bettors that understand this will have an advantage. 

MMA Betting Impact on the Public

Is the weight loss a big news story? If so, the betting public is going to take this into account and, as they always do, the public will overreact and bet accordingly. Smart bettors will take this public reaction and use it to find value, if any. Finding value when betting stacked UFC events gets easier when bettors pay attention to the public.

Bettors that choose to ignore the public will have a difficult time finding value in MMA fights. Think about the MMA betting impact of the underdog fighter who had to drop 15 pounds to make weight. The fight is also the main event on the night’s card. What the public does has a huge impact on how the smart bettor reacts.